Decision making -- An engineer's perspective(with the help of psychologists and economists)
I am an engineer by trade and I tend to think this way. I've been wondering why some people are inherently more indecisive than others when confronted with choices. First of all I'd like to state that being indecisive is not a bad thing per se, depending on how you phrase it: most of people would agree that it's a virtue to be prudent and thoughtful. With that said, let me try to lay out my approach of dealing with decisions.
The first question I'd ask is whether you care about the consequence of a decision or not, if not, that's wonderful: just flip a coin and it's taken care of. A good example is where to eat out Friday night, if you just want to have some fun and hang out with your friends, pick a place that is not over crowded and enjoy it.
If you do care about the consequence, here comes my second question: do you know what you really want? In other words, do you have well-established values or preferences? If the answer is no, don't worry, that's quite normal and I've got some suggestion for you: pick the one with your first hunch and stick with it. In the process of acting you will create your own version of reality(and of course your values and preferences) and it's pretty much like a self-fulfilling prophecy: you will make sense out of your actions retrospectively to validate the 'correctness ' of your initial decision. Special thanks to the renowned psychologist Karl Weick for his insight and inspiration into sensemaking.
If the answer is yes to my second question that you know very well that ticks you, here is my final question: are there a lot uncertainties with the decision that you need more information to make a educated guess? If yes, then you are not alone, we all face those difficult decisions from time to time and there are no easy solutions. In most cases you need good information and sound judgments to make a good decision. But still here economists can provide some help with its favorite tool of cost-benefit analysis: it takes time and resources to gather and analyze information, and the research efforts have to warrant the expected benefits of a sound decision. Empirical evidences show that people tend to over research on a trivial decision and under research for important ones, so don't spend too much time over where to shop or how to get coupons to save a few bucks, instead spend more time on who you will fall in love with(based on my own utility function, of course). Further more, we need to strive for plausibility rather than accuracy of information when facing a complex situation(Again credit to Weick).
Finally, I have a condensed version for computer geeks:
IF (you don't care about the consequence)
THEN Flip a coin
ESLE IF ( you don't know what you want)
THEN Ask Weick for help
ESLF IF ( You can't see thru the uncertainties )
THEN Ask an economist for help, and Weick also.
ESLE IF ( Still can't make up your mind )
Congrats! You could be the President of USA.

1 Comments:
Actually, it's easy to make a decision, either based on your own mide or any you named economist analysis. However, the most hardest part is sticking with your decision later on, no matter what scheme you use.
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